Recall Alberta Darling

Well, we fell short of our ultimate goal. But we accomplished so many amazing things. On to Recall Walker!

GOTV is hard work, both physically and mentally. You are asked to walk through oftentimes unfamiliar neighborhoods, trying to connect with perfect strangers. There are barking dogs, apathetic people, skeptics, and every once in a while a slammed door courtesy of a worked up tea partier. What’s more, there are demands of being on your feet for hours in the sun, wind or rain. And when you meet someone ready to listen you must — and there’s no better way to put it — make the sell. The direct ask is difficult for many. Rejection can be hard. However, we must overcome. The WI Senate District 8 recall election between Alberta Darling and Sandy Pasch is too important, too close, and your work is too necessary to leave it to others. Be a difference maker. Work GOTV.

Everyone from WI that cares about the direction Walker is taking our state needs to help get out the vote in one of the recall districts. Here in SD8 there are a number ways to help : the Pasch campaign and We Are Wisconsin are both running regular canvasses. But if grassroots is more your style, join us! We will be working key Milwaukee wards Aug 6-9. The election may be decided by Milwaukee turnout, and will definitely be won or lost on the ground. Work GOTV! Here’s why:

1. This Election Matters.

   For months, Scott Walker and his lapdog legislators have been launching an assault on Wisconsin values. They are dismantling worker’s rights, defunding public education, giving massive tax breaks to their corporate masters, disenfranchising voters, pushing through the most hyper-partisan redistricting plan our state has ever seen, pitting working people against one another, and making draconian cuts to BadgerCare, FoodShare, and every other program that helps those in need.

   We stood up and fought back. We packed the rotunda and Capitol Square. 14 brave Democratic Senators left the state to delay passage of Walker’s union-busting agenda. We launched recall efforts across the state, and tens of thousands of Wisconsinites signed petitions to fight against the Republican attack on the middle class. We made our voice heard. But they didn’t listen. They continued to ram through their corporate agenda, through whatever legal or illegal means the Fitzgerald brothers could conjure up. Through it all, we kept fighting. We forced 6 recall elections to remove Republicans from office. It is impossible to overstate the importance of these elections. If we don’t win at least 3 of these races, Scott Walker and the Republicans will continue to push through their corporate agenda – and who knows what they will think of next. If we don’t take back the Senate, we will not have any momentum going into the attempted Walker recall. The world is watching. Let’s show them what democracy looks like.

   Polls have shown that the recall elections, including Darling / Pasch, are tight. There is a good chance the the SD8 election will be pivotal. Sandy Pasch is a great candidate with a record of fighting for the middle class. She is working tirelessly to return Senate District 8 to the people. She can win, but it will all come down to turnout. If all we do is mobilize the base in this Republican leaning district, we will likely lose. But, if we also connect with infrequent and new voters and get them to the polls, we will win. Mobilizing voters is labor intensive. We need people.

2. GOTV works.

   It is well known that face-to-face conversation is the most effective method of persuasion. We have analyzed recent targeted GOTV operations of The Playground Legends, a grassroots community organizing group we have volunteered with, in two recent elections. On April 5th TPL supported JoAnne Kloppenburg for state Supreme Court and in the July 12th recall primary TPL supported Sandy Pasch. We worked wards in the City of Milwaukee, ward 150 on April 5th and ward 260 on July 12th. Our analysis suggests that for these low-turnout elections each person-day of work was worth about eight extra votes for our candidate. This may not seem like all that much for a full days work. But consider that by the time it’s over at least $2.5 million will have been spent trying to sway less than 25,000 swing votes. That comes out to at least $100 / vote. So, if you’d like, you can view your GOTV work as an $800 contribution.

3. Our best advantage is people. Let’s use it.

   Our side will never outspend theirs. They have the money to buy more TV and radio ads, glossy literature and billboards. But as we saw in Madison in February, we have motivated people. We can realize this edge most dramatically by mobilizing a massive GOTV operation. The closer we get to election day, the power of money to get votes decreases while the power of work grows. On election day even a very large contribution has little value. But 100 additional people ready to work is huge.

4. These are your elections.

   If you live in Wisconsin, no matter where you live, the recall elections are yours. Most WI voters cannot vote in the recalls. And, of course, no one can vote in more than one. Every Wisconsinite, however, has the same at stake. To the residents of SD8, the consequences of a Pasch victory are the same as a Shelly Moore win in SD10. Each Democratic win gets us one seat closer to taking back the Senate and stopping Walker. The GOP Senators have shown that they are simply Walker’s rubber stamp. These elections will determine if he gets to continue to force his far-right ideology down our throats. So, wherever you live in WI, find the nearest recall election and get to work.

5. GOTV work is not charity, it is your responsibility.

   Sandy Pasch is a great representative and has been a wonderful candidate. The work we will do to help Sandy win, however, is not for her. It is for us, our children, our friends and the future of Wisconsin.

I have a few comments about the PPP poll released today at Kos. It has Darling up 5 points with very few undecideds. Since a recent Dem party poll had Sandy up one, this is a disappointment. At least at first glance. However, we have many of the same concerns with this poll as we had with the one from March that we talked about back then.

PPP again graciously provided the area codes and first three digits of the phone numbers. As in March Milwaukee county appears to be under-sampled with only 44% of respondents from the county. A typical SD8 electorate is about half Milwaukee County.

More concerning is the non-white sample. Only 59% of the non-white sample was from Milwaukee county. Further, by looking at the three digit phone prefixes, it appears that close to 50% of the non-white sample from Milwaukee county is not from the City of Milwaukee. This is nowhere near the actual proportion. The reason for this is simply that City of Milwaukee Latios and African Americans in SD8 are much more likely to be cell phone only, and thus beyond the reach of this poll. We have knocked many doors in these areas. Every time we get a phone number we ask if it is a land line or a cell. The proportion of cell phones to landlines is probably 3 to 1. This is important because the City of Milwaukee Wards are the most solidly Democratic wards in all of SD8.

It’s impossible to say from this sample exactly where the race stands. But it is close. Defiantly closer than five points. Whatever the case, the election will be won or lost on the ground August 9th. Get to Work!

The race is tight. Everyone agrees that this election will be won by turnout. Now is the time the to act. Let’s work together to Get Out The Vote!

Register now to help us increase turnout among often ignored, but strongly Democratic, voting populations. We need you!

Volunteers needed Saturday August 6 through election day on August 9th.

We will post events when they are made public. 

Thanks to the thousands of hardworking volunteers who made this happen!

After looking at the raw data from the DailyKos/PPP poll released last week, we believe that the recall election for Alberta Darling’s senate seat is tighter than the reported 8 point spread (52-44).

As we noted earlier, prior to re-weighting (in the raw sample), Darling had 51.2% of the responses while a generic Democrat had 44.6%. PPP then re-weighted (presumably based on the demographics of the poll sample) and arrived at the reported spread. It appears to us, however, that there are actually proportionately more Darling voters in the poll, and proper re-weighting would have narrowed her gap from the 6.6% point edge she had in the raw data.

Using results from recent elections in Darling’s senate district and a close look at the poll, we make the following observations about the poll demographics.

• Under representation of Milwaukee County Voters. Voting patterns in district 8 are strongly influenced by geography. Voters in Milwaukee County tend to be more Democratic while voters from outside the county tend to be more Republican. In 2008 Darling received 36% of the vote in Milwaukee county, and the county made up nearly half of the electorate (49.4%). In 2010, a lower turnout election for Democrats, the county made up slightly less of the district 8 electorate (48.3%), and Walker received 38.3% of the district 8 vote in Milwaukee county. In the poll, however, only 44.9% of the responses were from in Milwaukee county. Thus, the representation of Milwaukee county in the poll was less than it was even in the low Democratic turnout election of 2010.
• Under representation of young voters. Only 3% of the polls responses were in the 18-29 age demographic. While we could not find a reliable estimate for the percentage of young voters in this district, it is certainly larger than 3% (nationally, 18-29 year olds made up 19% of the electorate in 2008. If anyone knows where we can find information on the demographics of the district, please contact us). This is probably due to  the cell-phone effect (the poll does not include cell phones). Almost no UW-Milwaukee students living off campus have landlines. Young voters, especially those attending college, tend to vote Democratic.
• Biased representation of African Americans. In the polled sample 25% of the African Americans were outside Milwaukee County. We’re not sure what the actual percentage is, but 25% is waaay too high. This is important because out-of-county African Americans supported Darling at a much higher rate (42%) in the poll than those in the county (13%). Again, this is probably due to the cell-phone effect. African Americans in Milwaukee county are much less wealthy and more likely to not have a landline than those from outside the county.
• Over representation of Walker voters Ignoring the “other / don’t recall” responses, Walker voters make up 55.5% of the polled sample. This is only about a point higher than Walker’s performance in 2010 (in district 8). However, given the enthusiasm of Democrats around the recall, it’s hard to imagine many Barrett voters sitting out the recall election.

Taken together then, two of the most under-represented groups in the poll are two of the strongest supporters of Democrats, young voters and African Americans living in Milwaukee county. So, what support should we conclude Darling actually has? If we re-weight only for county residence using the breakdown from 2008 election, it is a four point race (50-46). While 2008 was a high turnout election for Democrats, this re-weighting does not fully correct for the under-representation of young voters or African Americans.

To summarize, it is safe to conclude 1) the race in the recall election is closer than the 8 point gap reported, and 2) turnout will be a huge factor in the election. Since voters that sign the recall petition are more likely to vote in the election, it is essential for us to collect as many recall signatures as possible. Further, we should take advantage of the signature gathering stage to engage voters in demographics that tend to vote Democratic, but frequently don’t vote. Even if the signature yield in these groups are not as high as elsewhere, the effects on election day will be worth the effort.

DC based American Federation for Children was out in defense of Darling today (with a name like that you know they’re up to no good… brings to mind the human fund). There were widespread reports of robocalls throughout all of district 8. One argument the AFC robot made is that all Darling is trying to do is ask public workers to chip in a little bit. Of course it is a total lie. Darling said so much in her I-can’t-say-this-on-TV-moment.

I’m not sure of the cost of 1000s of robocalls, but I’m sure its not cheap. Costly attacks like this from (non-WI) far right organizations will certainly increase as we close in on the signature goal, and then into the campaign. They are scared, and the only defense they know is to buy stuff. There will be robocalls, pushpolls, TV and radio ads, paid trolls and so on. This is unavoidable.

While our side will have its own TV spots, our best asset always was and will remain the people working, sharing, thinking, motivating and lifting each other up. Will an organized, and motivated citizenry be able to defeat the huge sums of money and power that are attacking us? I don’t know. But I hope we get to find out.

You must be an eligible voter who resides in Senate District 8 to sign. To circulate, you must be an eligible voter in the great state of Wisconsin.

Mequon Moms Against Darling
Stop by to get a petition or sign one @ 9641 N Valley Hill Dr., Mequon 53092
Hours: Mondays 4pm to 7pm; Saturdays 9am to 12pm; Sundays 4pm to 7pm

Sweet and Associates, 2510 E Captiol Drive Shorewood 53211
Hours:  10:00-7:00 Daily

N88 W16784 Main St, Menomonee Falls
(on the north side of Main Street just west of Appleton Avenue)
Hours: 10-4 daily (check back as additional times to come)

SATURDAY, MARCH 19 , 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM:

• BAYSHORE PARK AND RIDE LOT (WEST SIDE OF N. PORT WASHINGTON ROAD ACROSS FROM TRADER JOE’S)

OR

• BROWN DEER PARK AND RIDE LOT (SOUTH SIDE OF BROWN DEER ROAD JUST WEST OF THE FREEWAY RAMP AND NEXT TO INDIAN HILL SCHOOL)

Please pass this along to your relatives, friends, neighbors and acquaintances.